Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
