Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
